{ "document_id": "N-004", "version": "1.0", "document": "research/N-004/note.md", "claims": [ { "claim_id": "C-RES-TOTAL", "text": "2026年7月末の外貨準備は1兆2,871億ドル（証券9,273億・預金1,623億）", "status": "FACT", "evidence": [ { "source_id": "SRC-MOF-RES" } ], "values": [ { "name": "total", "value": 1287.1, "unit": "十億ドル" } ] }, { "claim_id": "C-RES-MAY", "text": "2026年5月末は前月比−771億ドルで統計開始以来最大の減少（E5の痕跡）", "status": "FACT", "evidence": [ { "source_id": "SRC-MOF-RES" } ] }, { "claim_id": "C-OBS-0807", "text": "2026-08-07はNFP−2.3万人に対し安値156.666から+1.14円買い戻されて157.805で引けた", "status": "FACT", "evidence": [ { "source_id": "SRC-OANDA-D1" } ] }, { "claim_id": "C-FIMA-EST", "text": "FIMAレポは2020-03-31創設・2021-07-28公表で常設化（決議発効7/27）。目的は保有米国債の売却以外のドル調達", "status": "FACT", "evidence": [ { "source_id": "SRC-FED-2020" }, { "source_id": "SRC-FED-2021" } ] }, { "claim_id": "C-FIMA-APPROVE", "text": "FIMA利用は申請制でFRBが承認・拒否する（自動的権利ではない）", "status": "FACT", "evidence": [ { "source_id": "SRC-FED-FAQ" } ] }, { "claim_id": "C-FIMA-RATE", "text": "FIMA翌日物レートはSRF最低応札金利連動で2026-07-29時点3.75%（FF目標レンジ上限）。バックストップ設計", "status": "FACT", "evidence": [ { "source_id": "SRC-FED-IMPL" }, { "source_id": "SRC-FED-FAQ" } ], "values": [ { "name": "on_rate", "value": 3.75, "unit": "%" } ] }, { "claim_id": "C-FIMA-CAP", "text": "取引上限は1カウンターパーティあたり日次600億ドルで、2026-08-08時点で未変更", "status": "FACT", "evidence": [ { "source_id": "SRC-FED-2021" } ], "values": [ { "name": "cap", "value": 60, "unit": "十億ドル/日" } ] }, { "claim_id": "C-FIMA-REPAY", "text": "FIMAは有担保のドル借入であり返済（買戻し）義務を伴う。資産売却ではない", "status": "FACT", "evidence": [ { "source_id": "SRC-FED-FAQ" }, { "source_id": "SRC-FED-2020" } ] }, { "claim_id": "C-FIMA-H41", "text": "FIMA残高はH.4.1 Table 1「Repurchase agreements — Foreign official」に計上される", "status": "FACT", "evidence": [ { "source_id": "SRC-FED-H41N" } ] }, { "claim_id": "C-FIMA-ZERO", "text": "E6期間を含む直近週のFIMA使用はゼロ（レポ総額1〜3百万ドル・Foreign official行=0の二重確認）", "status": "FACT", "evidence": [ { "source_id": "SRC-FRED-WORAL" }, { "source_id": "SRC-FED-H41C" } ] }, { "claim_id": "C-TALK-0731", "text": "日米協調の円買い介入は米国東部時間2026-07-31（金）に実施と財務大臣談話が明記", "status": "FACT", "evidence": [ { "source_id": "SRC-MOF-TALK" } ] }, { "claim_id": "C-TALK-FIMA", "text": "日本は将来的なFIMAレポ活用を予定と財務大臣談話（8/3）で表明。実際の引出しは未発生", "status": "FACT", "evidence": [ { "source_id": "SRC-MOF-TALK" }, { "source_id": "SRC-FED-H41C" } ] }, { "claim_id": "C-JOINT-NOFIMA", "text": "2025-09-11の日米財務相共同声明にFIMA・ドル調達協力の文言は存在しない", "status": "FACT", "evidence": [ { "source_id": "SRC-TSY-JOINT" } ] }, { "claim_id": "C-BESSENT", "text": "米財務長官は2026-08-02 20:40 EDTのX投稿でFIMA上限の拡大を促した。treasury.gov非掲載・FRB公式反応なし", "status": "CONFIRMED", "evidence": [ { "source_id": "SRC-X-BESSENT" } ] }, { "claim_id": "C-US-EUR", "text": "米側執行がユーロ売り・円買いだったとの情報は報道由来であり一次未確認（NY連銀Q3報告待ち）", "status": "UNVERIFIED", "evidence": [ { "source_id": "SRC-X-BESSENT" } ] }, { "claim_id": "C-CAP-UP", "text": "FIMA上限は拡大される（決着: 2026年9月中旬FOMC）", "status": "HYPOTHESIS", "evidence": [ { "source_id": "SRC-X-BESSENT" } ], "falsification_condition": "2026年9月中旬FOMCの実施ノートおよび常設FIMA決議改定に上限変更の記載が無ければ、当該会合時点で棄却" }, { "claim_id": "C-MC", "text": "介入の制約は残高でなく限界費用である（代理指標: 預金比率・FIMA行・custody・特会繰入。反証条件は本文§8）", "status": "HYPOTHESIS", "evidence": [ { "source_id": "SRC-MOF-RES" }, { "source_id": "SRC-FRED-WORAL" } ], "falsification_condition": "代理指標（預金比率低下・FIMA行の非ゼロ化・custody圧縮の進行）が悪化しても、介入の頻度・規模・効果半減期に系統的変化が観測されない場合は棄却（本文§8）" } ], "sources": [ { "source_id": "SRC-MOF-RES", "title": "財務省 外貨準備等の状況（月次）", "url": "https://www.mof.go.jp/policy/international_policy/reference/official_reserve_assets/index.htm", "tier": 1 }, { "source_id": "SRC-MOF-TALK", "title": "片山財務大臣談話（2026-08-03）", "url": "https://www.mof.go.jp/public_relations/statement/other/20260803072806.html", "tier": 1, "note": "自前curl照合済み（FIMA・協調・7/31）" }, { "source_id": "SRC-TSY-JOINT", "title": "日米財務大臣共同声明（2025-09-11）", "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0245", "tier": 1, "note": "自前照合: FIMA言及0件" }, { "source_id": "SRC-FED-2020", "title": "FRB FIMA創設声明（2020-03-31）", "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200331a.htm", "tier": 1 }, { "source_id": "SRC-FED-2021", "title": "FRB 常設化声明（2021-07-28）", "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20210728b.htm", "tier": 1, "note": "自前照合: $60bn per counterparty" }, { "source_id": "SRC-FED-FAQ", "title": "FRB FIMA Repo FAQ", "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fima-repo-facility-faqs.htm", "tier": 1, "note": "自前照合: approve or deny／backstop" }, { "source_id": "SRC-FED-IMPL", "title": "FRB 実施ノート（2026-07-29）", "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a1.htm", "tier": 1, "note": "自前照合: SRF 3.75%" }, { "source_id": "SRC-FED-H41N", "title": "H.4.1 計上注記（2020-04-09）", "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/H41/20200409/H41.TXT", "tier": 1 }, { "source_id": "SRC-FED-H41C", "title": "H.4.1 直近リリース（2026-08-06公表）", "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/h41.pdf", "tier": 1 }, { "source_id": "SRC-FRED-WORAL", "title": "FRED WORAL（レポ総額・週次）", "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=WORAL", "tier": 2 }, { "source_id": "SRC-X-BESSENT", "title": "米財務長官X投稿（2026-08-02 20:40 EDT）", "url": "https://x.com/SecScottBessent", "tier": 2, "note": "本人発信だが自前直接照合は未・Reuters/CNBC相互補強" }, { "source_id": "SRC-OANDA-D1", "title": "OANDA USD/JPY 日足", "url": "（再配布不可・sha256=1fdae032…）", "tier": 2 } ], "calculations": [], "inputs": [] }