{
 "title": "FXIR Verification & Release Calendar",
 "note": "二層構造: kind=resolution は当研究所の主張（ESTIMATE/UNVERIFIED/HYPOTHESIS）の決着日。kind=release は市場の定期観測日であり、予測には用いない（会則第20条）。releaseの用途は ①Detectorの誤検知抑制窓 ②+α基準③（RV20）発火時の交絡注記 ③執行環境の文脈、に限る。release系列はSPEC-DETECTOR v0.1の入力に登録済み。日付を持たない定期系列はrecurringに置く。",
 "entries": [
  {
   "kind": "resolution",
   "date": "2026-08-28",
   "approx": false,
   "source": "財務省 月次介入額公表",
   "resolves": [
    {
     "target": "E6 Cost",
     "from": "ESTIMATE",
     "to": "CONFIRMED"
    },
    {
     "target": "N-001（推計乖離記録）",
     "from": "PLANNED",
     "to": "公開"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "kind": "release",
   "date": "2026-08-10",
   "time_jst": "08:50",
   "label": "日銀 金融政策決定会合における主な意見（7月30・31日会合分）",
   "source": "日本銀行 公表予定（2026-08-07更新）",
   "source_url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/about/calendar/index.htm",
   "affects": [
    "detector_suppression_window",
    "alpha3_confound_note",
    "context"
   ],
   "note": "E6の観測継続中に発生する定期イベント。半減期・+α判定基準は不変（PR-001凍結）。同時刻帯にRV20等が反応した場合は交絡として注記する"
  },
  {
   "kind": "release",
   "date": "2026-08-19",
   "approx": true,
   "time_jst": "（米東部時間14:00）",
   "label": "FOMC議事要旨（7月28-29日会合分）",
   "source": "FRB（会合3週間後の慣例・確報で精密化）",
   "source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
   "affects": [
    "detector_suppression_window",
    "context"
   ],
   "note": "E6直前の会合。米側の為替・レートチェック言及があれば米側事実の格上げ材料（N-003 RC-3前例）"
  },
  {
   "kind": "release",
   "date": "2026-08-13",
   "time_jst": "08:50",
   "label": "企業物価指数（2026年7月分）",
   "source": "日本銀行 公表予定（2026-08-07更新）",
   "source_url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/about/calendar/index.htm",
   "affects": [
    "detector_suppression_window",
    "context"
   ],
   "note": "円安→輸入物価の転嫁経路を示す月次系列。以後は毎月中旬・8:50（BOJ公表予定に従い都度確定）"
  },
  {
   "kind": "release",
   "date": "2026-09-03",
   "time_jst": "08:50",
   "label": "日銀 当座預金増減要因（9月見込み）",
   "source": "日本銀行 公表予定（2026-08-07更新・実測）",
   "source_url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/about/calendar/index.htm",
   "affects": [
    "context"
   ],
   "note": "財政等要因の見込み。介入決済の事後観測はN-003 §四の経路"
  },
  {
   "kind": "resolution",
   "date": "2026-09-07",
   "approx": true,
   "label": "2026年9月上旬",
   "source": "財務省 外貨準備等の状況（8月末分）",
   "source_url": "https://www.mof.go.jp/policy/international_policy/reference/official_reserve_assets/index.htm",
   "resolves": [
    {
     "target": "E6 原資構成（預金取崩し／証券圧縮の別）",
     "from": "UNVERIFIED",
     "to": "CONFIRMED"
    }
   ],
   "note": "7月末分にはE6が未反映の可能性（決済タイミング・Bloomberg 8/7）。N-004参照。N-004 §2はこの公表で追記改版予定"
  },
  {
   "kind": "resolution",
   "date": "2026-09-16",
   "approx": true,
   "label": "米FOMC（9月中旬）",
   "source": "FRB 会合日程",
   "source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
   "resolves": [
    {
     "target": "FIMA上限拡大（ベッセン要請）",
     "from": "HYPOTHESIS",
     "to": "判定"
    }
   ],
   "note": "恒久拡大はFOMC投票事項（N-004 §7）。日付は中旬・確報で精密化"
  },
  {
   "kind": "resolution",
   "date": "2026-09-18",
   "approx": false,
   "label": "日銀 金融政策決定会合（9/17-18開催・結果公表9/18、総裁会見15:30）",
   "source": "日本銀行 2026年会合日程（2025-07-31公表）",
   "source_url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/mopo/mpmsche_minu/m_ref/mref250731a.pdf",
   "resolves": [
    {
     "target": "E6 +α仮説（PR-001）",
     "from": "HYPOTHESIS",
     "to": "判定"
    },
    {
     "target": "N-002",
     "from": "PLANNED",
     "to": "公開"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "kind": "release",
   "date": "2026-10-01",
   "time_jst": "08:50",
   "label": "日銀 主な意見（9月17・18日会合分）",
   "source": "日本銀行 2026年会合日程（2025-07-31公表）",
   "source_url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/mopo/mpmsche_minu/m_ref/mref250731a.pdf",
   "affects": [
    "detector_suppression_window",
    "alpha3_confound_note",
    "context"
   ]
  },
  {
   "kind": "resolution",
   "date": "2026-10-31",
   "approx": true,
   "label": "2026年10月下旬",
   "source": "NY連銀 Q3 四半期FX報告",
   "resolves": [
    {
     "target": "RC-4 米側実施",
     "from": "UNVERIFIED",
     "to": "CONFIRMED（見込み）"
    },
    {
     "target": "E6 米国側介入額",
     "from": "UNVERIFIED",
     "to": "CONFIRMED（見込み）"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "kind": "resolution",
   "date": "2026-11-10",
   "approx": true,
   "label": "2026年11月上旬",
   "source": "財務省 四半期 日次内訳公表",
   "resolves": [
    {
     "target": "E6 日別実施額",
     "from": "ESTIMATE",
     "to": "CONFIRMED"
    }
   ]
  }
 ],
 "recurring": [
  {
   "label": "日銀 当座預金増減要因（実績・当日見込み）",
   "schedule": "毎営業日 朝",
   "kind": "release",
   "purpose": "財政等要因による介入決済の事後確認（N-003・SPEC-DETECTOR入力）"
  },
  {
   "label": "FRB H.4.1（連銀バランスシート週報）",
   "schedule": "毎週木曜 16:30 ET",
   "kind": "release",
   "purpose": "custody・海外RRP・FIMAレポ上界の週次監視（SPEC-H41 v1.1）。Foreign official行の正転＝FIMA初回引出しの一次証跡"
  },
  {
   "label": "CFTC 建玉明細（COT）",
   "schedule": "毎週金曜 15:30 ET（火曜時点）",
   "kind": "release",
   "purpose": "円ポジションの週次監視（投機筋ネット）"
  }
 ],
 "generated_at": "2026-08-09T00:48:08+09:00"
}